CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-11-22T21:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-11-22T21:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27829/-1
CME Note: Southern directed CME as seen in LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. Partial halo. Source is a faint and broad area of dimming spanning from about E20-W30 (near AR3489 to AR3498) starting at about 2023-11-22T20:45Z as seen in SDO AIA 171/193 and GOES SUVI 284 imagery. There was a C4.1-class flare from AR 3489 (S15E07) with peak time 2023-11-22T19:02Z associated with this event. Arrival signature is complex, with solar wind speed was jumping from 480 km/s to over 550 km/s, reaching a maximum near 600 km/s and a corresponding amplification of B_total from 7 nT to 18 nT and of density from 17 to over 25 particles/cc. The signature is complicated by the preceding arrival of a coronal high speed stream on 2023-11-24.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-11-25T07:59Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-26T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:
Met Office ENLIL settings. ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform) Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1 WSA version: 4.5 GONG: mrzqs Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop. Please specify following CME input parameters. Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 23/0535 Radial velocity (km/s): 540 Longitude (deg): 2W Latitude (deg): 37S Half-angular width (deg): 55 Notes: Space weather advisor: LHLead Time: 49.48 hour(s)
Difference: -16.02 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-11-23T06:30Z
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